With victory over the San Diego Chargers ensuring a playoff berth for the first time since 1999 the Lions head into the final regular season game knowing that beating the Pack will not only give them the fifth seed heading into the post season but that they will have finished with their best regular season record since the 12-4 team of 1991. The contrast in fortunes with the Packers over the last two decades could not be more stark as the Packers will be completing their 9th 11+ win season during that same period and that doesn't include last years 10-win Super Bowl winning season. With the Packers already having secured home field advantage throughout the playoffs and, thanks to the Kansas City Chiefs, with them no longer playing for an unbeaten season it is quite possible that as well as sit Aaron Rodgers they will rest other key starters for this game. A weakened Packers team may not be the pushover that many observers believe however and securing the fifth seed with it's trip to Dallas or New York may not be the reward many to believe it to be either.
After showing flashes throughout the season the Lions finally managed to sustain a game long performance in which they pretty well fired on all cylinders. The inconsistencies finally disappeared when the prospect of a playoff spot became attainable. As we now head toward post season play that has to be a characteristic that will help determine just how far this team could progress into January. The offensive performance against the Chargers was built almost entirely around the arm of Matthew Stafford and as impressive as that was, and can be, it is unlikely it alone will be enough to get the job done in January. A run game of some threat needs to be established and I think that is what was behind the roster move for Joique Bell, who was obtained this week from the Saints Practice Squad. With wind and snow forecast for Lambeau Field the conditions don't appear to favour the passing game and unlike the Soldier Field game earlier in the season I have to hope that this time Linehan produces a game plan that takes the conditions into account. Personally I think that Kevin Smith will run through brick walls in this game in an attempt to exorcise the demons of that season defining 16th defeat here in 2008. Veteran O-Linemen Backus, Raiola and Peterman should also be sufficiently motivated to win a battle in the trenches. It should also be interesting to see how the Lions react to the injection of confidence that the performance of last week and all that it meant has brought to this group of players. Most have yet to reach their potential and this season has been a learning curve that's for sure. The time is here where that learning curve is about to get a lot steeper.
For the most part the Lions defense has not been the dominating force that many not only believe it to be but many predicted it to be. That's not to say it has not played well, quite the contrary in fact, but rather that the Lions defense has been a containing force. Opposing teams for almost the entire season have been contained by Gunther Cunningham's unit and for the most part the damage the opposing offense has been able to inflict has been limited. It was a defensive containing performance against the Packers on Thanksgiving Day that provided the blueprint for Chiefs victory over the Packers and it is probably safe to assume that the Lions will be looking to execute the same plan today only this time for the whole game. The media focus will undoubtedly be on Ndamukong Suh after his Thanksgiving Day stomp and it will be interesting to see how he responds. Personally I think this will be a game that helps to define his reputation as the dominating defensive force he will undoubtedly be. Cliff Avril may well be the beneficiary of the attention on Suh but it is quite possible the former Packer Corey Williams has one of those games that players dream of when facing former colleagues. An intensive Lions defense could well chase the key Packer offensive players from the game, whether by injury or more likely by way of protecting them for the future, and if that's the case the Lions Secondary could well find themselves picking off Matt Flynn passes.
Special Teams have remained the weakest of the three Lions units throughout the season and despite showing signs of improvement over the last few weeks they are still way short of where they should be. Ben Graham and Jason Hanson can be relied upon but the coverage team is prone to giving up the big one and Logan's production suggests he is a luxury, given his lack of production as a receiver or running back, that I doubt the Lions will be able to afford next season. The weather may well help and hinder the Special Teams units in this game as high winds and snow could cause all sorts of mistakes.
I've been confident about the Lions winning this game for most of this season and after the last couple of victories see no reason to change my mind now. It may actually be harder to match up against Matt Flynn and other Packer backups as they will most likely play at full tilt rather than tentatively in the hope of avoiding a season ending injury. Despite this I think the Lions are finally becoming the team many of us thought they could be this season and that is extremely encouraging. I think the victory is more important for momentum and self belief rather than for securing the fifth seed as I think the Lions are capable of going into San Francisco or New Orleans and coming away with a win. If anything I'm slightly more concerned about a trip back to Dallas or to New York to face the up and down Giants. In a nice piece of symmetry it is worth noting that the last time the Lions won at Lambeau Field was 1991 which coincidentally just so happens to be the last time the Lions finished a season with more than ten wins.
Prediction: LIONS 28 Packers 19
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