In the words of The Pointer Sisters "I'm so excited!" and I suspect I am not alone among Lions fans in not being able to hide it too as the Lions first playoff appearance since 1999 nears ever closer. Hopefully the players will be a little less excited and able to focus on the task at hand, namely beating the formidable New Orleans Saints. Having finished the Regular Season with a 10-6 win/loss record I am prepared to forgive the team for falling one victory short of my predicted 11 wins as the Packers game would surely have ended in victory had a perfectly legitimate TD catch by Titus Young not been ruled incomplete. The 'reward', had the Lions beaten the Packers, was a playoff trip to New York to face the Giants which media and fans alike regarded as much the more attractive prospect to travelling to the Big Easy to face the Saints. Personally I think the Giants would have proved to be the tougher game but, in truth, when you get into the playoffs as a Wild Card it's unlikely you play a game that isn't tough. So here we are in unfamiliar territory, it's January and we're watching the Lions play meaningful football. So, whatever the result, after the last decade that can only be reason to celebrate.
There were 3 QB's that threw for over 5,000 yards this season Brees and Stafford has been the focus of most previews for this game in anticipation of a gun slinging shootout that could well deliver record passing yards for a single game. If the Raiders game a few weeks back was the game in which Stafford came of age this could well be the game where he establishes himself as the next superstar QB. It can be expected that Stafford's best receiving target, Calvin Johnson, will be heavily covered by the Saints and if this is the case then a more disciplined display than in the previous encounter from secondary targets Burleson and Pettigrew will be required. Add Young and Scheffler to the mix and it is easy to believe that the Lions should be able to hold their own if the game does turn into a through the air shootout. However the key to victory may well lie in which team manages to run the ball effectively. It was a gimpy Kevin Smith that played in the previous encounter and if he is fully fit Smith could well end up being the key to a Lions victory. With the Saints defense likely to be focussed on negating the Lions passing game, and Johnson in particular, there could well be the possibility for Smith to break through for large gains on the ground. The prevailing memory of last years Saints playoff loss to the Seahawks is that of Marshawn Lynch rumbling through the Saints D. If Smith is able to do something similar then it could well lead to a similar upset.
The Week 13 result is pointed to as the reason why the Saints should win this game. They've already burned the Lions once so they should be able to do it again, especially now we are in the post-season where you get no second chances. Unfortunately for those holding this view there is something that they don't generally take into account namely the players missing from the Lions defense that day. The most notable absentee was Ndamukong Suh but the absence of Lawrence Jackson should not be underestimated. Those that saw that Sunday night encounter may well remember the impressive first quarter that Lions first rounder Nick Fairley had and when analysing this game it would be foolish not to expect a significantly better performance this time round from the Lions D-Line. It is unlikely that the Saints O-Line laden with Pro Bowlers will underestimate the Lions D-Line but they may well find themselves facing a consistency of pressure they were not expecting that could start to reap dividends for the Lions going in to the fourth quarter. It has to be hoped from a Lions perspective that the game remains close in order for this potential late game pressure to affect the game.Two other absentees from that Sunday night game represent half of this season's starting Secondary, Louis Delmas and Chris Houston. I thought it notable that Coach Schwartz chose to highlight the return of Delmas in the build up to this game. It may be Alphonso Smith that takes the attention by grabbing an interception or two but it is likely that it will be Delmas that consistently makes the difference in the among the Saints receivers.
I've been bashing Stefan Logan for most of the season and, as much as I'd like to, I can't start waving a flag for him now. I hope in this game he keeps his discipline and doesn't repeat his Personal foul from the first encounter. I also hope that he doesn't keep fair catching balls inside the 15 yard line! Hopefully back indoors Jason Hanson returns to his flawless best and converts every Field Goal he is asked to kick. Graham can punt the ball and if the coverage unit can contain any returns the Lions should be in good field position.
The Saints have been so impressive in the Superdome this season that it is hard to pick against them and they are justifiably many people's pick to win the Super Bowl. The Lions though were their own worst enemy in that Sunday night Week 13 game and I can't believe they make the same mistakes again. I also think there are significant returnees to the Lions in this game that were absent in the previous one. Suh, Jackson and Fairley (although only partially absent in the first game) improve the Lions D-Line rotation massively so Brees should find himself under greater pressure. If the Lions D line can do a better job of getting their hands in the air as well then Brees may well be offering opportunities for interceptions for a Lions Secondary that will now be at full strength. Whoever wins the turnover battle is likely to win the game. The Saints are the established good team that is possibly in the midst of a period of success while the for the Lions this is the first season of what is hopefully their own period of sustained success. It might well be that this is a game that is won by experience and defeat is something that will prove an invaluable learning experience for the Lions. I believe the Lions have more than a punchers chance in this one though and think that they will go into the game knowing they can win. It is this belief that I believe will see them produce their performance of the season and send them on their way to Green Bay.
Prediction: LIONS 48 Saints 45
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