I was recently listening to SI's Peter King interviewing Coach Schwartz and, after going over the Coaches reputation for being a stats man, King asked if the Coach believed there to be an overrated or underrated stat that the wider world should be aware of. Schwartz deferred on answering directly and instead pointed out what he believed to be an erroneous focus within the world of NFL stats. Schwartz pointed out that there is an obsession in yardage when in reality it should be points that should be focussed on. He has a point (pardon the pun). After all, the team that gains 500 yds but scores 15 points loses to the team that gains 250 yards but scores 21 points.
The reason I mention this is because going into this weeks game the Lions lie 4th in giving up the fewest average points per game at 17.8 and also lie 4th in scoring the highest average points per game with 31.8 (for the mathematically bored or challenged that's a 14 pt or two TD difference in the Lions favour). Scoring an average of two TD' more than your opponent goes a long way to explaining why we're 5-0. But in the words of ESPN's College Gameday's Lee Corso "not so fast my friend" the 49ers are 4-1 and lie 2nd in giving up fewest points per game at 15.6 and 7th in highest scoring average with 28.4 points per game (for anyone still interested that's a 12.8 point difference in favour of the 49ers). To further illustrate Schwartz's point the Lions lie 12th & the 49ers 13th in yardage given up while the Lions are 10th and the 49ers a lowly 27th in yards gained. So, if you hadn't realised it already, this game should be close.
The 49ers are showing the kind of form this season they were expected to show a year ago and credit for that must go to new HC Jim Harbaugh who has introduced a Michigan attitude to the Bay Area team. Unfortunately for the 49ers they are a run stuffing defense that is prone to giving up passing yardage while the Lions are a passing team that give just enough of a nod to the running game to prevent opponents playing with 6 or more DB's on every down. Matthew Stafford is making up for losing out on so much playing time these past two seasons and is already being talked about among the league's best QB's. The almost telepathic relationship he has with his primary target, Calvin 'Megatron' Johnson, has had much to do with the pairs growing reputation around the league. Tony Scheffler will be missing from Stafford's alternate options after suffering a concussion against the Bears and I would think passes thrown to Burleson & Young will increase more than those to Pettigrew. Whoever ends up being the target though Stafford will need to be accurate as the 49ers have proved more than capable of picking off opposing QB's this season. Jahvid Best will be looking to build on his career best outing last Monday and if he does the Lions could well win this by a considerable distance. Despite the yards though I didn't see Best's performance against the Bears as an indicator that the Lions have found their running game. I believe the 2nd half rushing yardage and how it was gained was envisioned by the management & coaching staff when they drafted LeShoure. A speedy RB (Best) breaking it for long gains against a defense weakened by a power back (LeShoure). The Bears defense was weakened not by the power back though but an undermanned D-Line that had worn itself out trying to get to Stafford.
I think it says an awful lot about how good the Lions D-Line is that Jay Cutler was credited with having one of his best ever games Monday night and yet all he really did was evade sacks and complete short passes while throwing off balance. The 49ers offense presents strengths that may well mirror the Lions defensive weaknesses. The Lions have given up steady if not spectacular rushing yardage in nearly every game this season and the 49ers will most likely be looking to establish their own run game early on. Similarly the Lions seem to have been susceptible to quick short passes and in Vernon Davis the 49ers have the perfect weapon for this. That said the 49ers have not done the best of jobs protecting Alex Smith nor have they faced a D-Line quite as ferocious as the Lions. Also, despite giving up yards on the ground early, the Lions have done a good job of forcing opponents into many 3 and outs in the 2nd halves of games. Unlike previous opponents though I don't think we'll see Harbaugh going for it on 4th & short and expect the 49ers to take the Field Goal opportunity when it's presented. As the Bears game showed the Lions biggest advantage on defense could well be the crowd inside Ford Field with the noise levels loud enough to unsettle even the most composed of offenses.
The Lions Special teams will be looking to do a similar job on 49ers return specialist Ted Ginn as they did in shutting down the Bears Devin Hester. Stefan Logan is probably hoping he gets the opportunity to return the ball and the Lions are most likely hoping they start a drive nearer the opposition endzone than their own 20 yard line which seems to have been the most common starting position for Lions drives this season. The difference in average points per game between these two teams suggests this game may be decided by a Field Goal and this game offers up two of the most accurate in the league who in the protected Ford Field environment can happily split the uprights from over 50 yards.
A nice quirky little fact is that these teams combined for a 1-9 record at this stage last season which perfectly mirrors their combined 9-1 record this season. Their record suggests the 49ers could be the toughest team the Lions have faced this season but the Lions may be the first really good team the 49ers have lined up against. When assessing performance against common opponents it should be remembered that the Lions beat both the Cowboys & Buccaneers on the road while the 49ers defeat of the Bucs came after the Bucs had beaten the Colts on MNF. I'm going to take the Lions to continue the win streak in what could be an uncomfortably close game.
Prediction: 49ers 19 LIONS 24
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