The beauty of a 16 game season is that each game is an event and, to varying degrees as the season goes on, each game matters. Having lost their first game of the season and thus bringing to an end a nine-game winning streak this game matters to the Lions, it matters big time. The 49ers defeat challenged these new Lions and their growing reputation, against the Falcons they have the opportunity to answer that challenge and show these Lions are different.
The 49ers did what all opposing teams do, focus on taking away Calvin Johnson, they just did it a little better than most. The key for me though to their defensive performance was shutting down the Lions run game and the pressure they brought to Matthew Stafford. The Cowboys and Vikings had similar success but had been unable to sustain it throughout the 60 minutes in the way the 49ers managed. The news this week on Jahvid Best and, perhaps more worryingly, Jerome Harrison looks to have put the attention firmly on Maurice Morris. The Lions offensive strengths are undoubtedly linked with passing the football but if they are unable to establish a run threat to at least keep the opposing defense honest the strength of the passing game is severely diminished. In Morris the Lions will probably have a more consistent gainer of 3 to 4 yards than they have in Best but Morris will not offer the potential breakaway ability that Best does. There is also an opportunity for Keiland Williams to make a name for himself in this game and it has to be hoped that the O-Line is determined to put in a better effort than they did against San Francisco when they were poor in both aspects of the offense. Either Stafford will need to be quicker with his reads or the O-Line will need to afford him more time to go through his check downs if the passing attack is to flourish. Opposition attention to CJ should ensure more favourable matchups for Burleson, Pettigrew and Young. Stafford didn't look at his most comfortable last week and will surely be looking to get into a better groove against the Falcons.
As owners of last season's best record in the NFC the Falcons are a better team than their 3-3 record this season may suggest. Notoriously poor on the road, but being a dome team, I would think they will find less disadvantage being in an indoor stadium. That said the noise levels inside Ford Field are proving to be a real problem for the opposition. The 49ers negated the Lions pass rush, as the Cowboys did in the first half of that game, with quick reads and short accurate slant passes. They also rode a play that the Lions had been susceptible to all season, the trap block run. Frank Gore gashed the Lions for big gains and you can be sure the Falcons Michael Turner will be licking his lips at the prospect of having a similarly big game. The Lions D-Line is not going to stop being aggressive and so it will be down to the linebackers to do a better job, in getting off their blocks to tackle the running back, than they did in the 49ers game. Chris Houston will no doubt be hoping for a stellar game against his former team so it might well be worth keeping an eye out for him.
Given the personnel I think the most disappointing group so far this season has been the Special Teams group. Consistently poor field position was a real difference maker last week with the 49ers crucial game winning drive being mounted from fantastic field position after a great return by Ted Ginn. It didn't need the refs to add a further 5 yards to it but I doubt the 49ers offense trots onto the field so enthusiastically if it's starting from around it's own 10 yard line, as was the case on many Lions drives. There is a case that Hanson missing his 50+ yard field goal and Akers making his was the difference between the two teams and in some respects it was. It would be too simplistic to write the defeat off to a missed field goal though as the problems were much deeper than that.
My biggest concern when looking at this game is whether the Lions will be able to run the ball effectively. I'm going to trust that Morris produces in the way he did at the end of last season and gives the Lions enough of a run threat to keep the chains moving. I also have the feeling that had we beaten the 49ers then it would've been the Falcons who would be the first team to beat us. But as the 49ers won I think the hurt of that defeat will be enough to re-focus the Lions on what it takes to win football games. I'm also hoping that Titus Young finally proves me right and has that break out game he's clearly capable of. I would not be surprised if the defense finds this game to be very similar to the Cowboys game so they will need to stay relentless as their successes may come late on. In a close game field position will be crucial and it is to be hoped that the Lions Special teams unit have a good game.
Prediction: Falcons 24 LIONS 27
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