Whilst, unlike last week, I don't think a loss would end the Lions season I do believe a loss would put us in a position that, given everything I've seen of this current Lions team, would suggest they couldn't come back from. So a virtual must win game, if you will, but one in which a strong performance in defeat may just show a spark that turns into something the rest of the way home. A 3-3 record after this game would probably be what most were predicting pre-season and given that the schedule has been skewed to road games a 2-4 record would only be going with home field advantage. Those losses to the Vikes and Titans though have left the Lions with little wiggle room now for the remainder of the season and for the season to amount to something they will need to not only win the games they are expected to win but also a few that they may not be fancied to win. This game falls into the category of not fancied to win. The Bears go into it with an impressive 4-1 record but a quick look behind that impressive stat suggests they have yet to beat anyone of note. It should also be noted that their solitary defeat, to the Packers, highlighted weaknesses that the Lions should be perfectly set up to exploit.
The Lions offense finally got going in the 4th Quarter in Philadelphia but, as in the previous four games, the offense looked out of synch. I think we have to assume now that Stafford is just not playing as well this season as he did last season and, consequently, have to hope that he finds his game at some point before the season is lost. The Bears will be looking to target Stafford with aggressive pass rushing and the Lions O Line is not good enough to keep Stafford free from pressure for the entire game. Last season the wind and Stafford's damaged finger hampered the Lions passing game while the running game never really got going. This year there's a chance the weather may be a factor again and it may be worth Linehan springing a surprise and playing with two Backs in the backfield. Joique Bell has exhibited plenty of heart as well as ability in his cameo appearances to date and it may be worth considering letting the two young backs have a go at the Bears D with Bell operating in a lead block role. I doubt very much that they'll do this though and it will be via the pass that the Lions will live or die. They are after all set up to throw the ball and Stafford is going to have to do a better job of finding open receivers and those open receivers are going to have to do a better job of catching the ball when he does.
For me the Lions defense had their best outing of the season, by some distance, against Philadelphia. I'm sure I wasn't alone in thinking both during and after the game "is Delmas really that important to us?"Given the evidence from our drop off in form last season through his absence and injury when he returned to the difference in displays with him in and out of the sided this season I'm starting to believe he should be the first name on the team sheet. For the Lions to win this game the D-Line is going to have to repeat what the Packers did earlier in the season and make Cutler's life hell. I don't mean cheap late shots that draw penalties and keep drives alive I mean dominating the Bears O-Line so that Cutler is tripping over himself in trying to get away from the on rushing Lions. The Lions will need to do a better job of shutting down the Bears running game than they have in recent meetings too. Being gashed for long yards by Matt Forte has ruined too many otherwise decent defensive displays in this fixture. If Cutler is given time then he has the weapons to expose our Secondary which has returned to bad from awful but is still a long way from being good.
Like the defense I felt the Special Teams unit also had its best outing of the season, although it didn't have to do much for that to be the case. There is still plenty of room for improvement with both coverage and return units and the Bears have generally been one of the better Special Teams units over recent seasons so we best be ready to be tested. Field position is an often neglected factor when analysing games but I'm sure if we start forcing the opposition to start drives from inside their 10 while we begin our own beyond our 40 we will soon be winning a lot more games than we lose.
There's been much hype about the Bears start to the season yet, as I hinted at in the opening paragraph, they have only really played one decent team so far this season and they lost to them so I think this game is more winnable than it seems at first galnce. Despite only really having the evidence of a fourth quarter from the offense in an otherwise depressingly familiar mistake filled game against the Eagles I am predicting the Lions offense finds it's mojo in this game. I'm going to stick my neck out and say LeShoure goes over 100 yds for the second time this season. I also think the Lions D-Line dominates this game and has Cutler taken from the game. I'm hoping the Special Teams unit doesn't cost us the game by giving up TD returns or constantly leaving us with short fields to defend and long ones to attack. Yes I'm going to be bold and say the Lions win this one and win it well.
Prediction: LIONS 33 Bears 16
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