Lions Defensive Co-Ordinator Gunther Cunningham summed up my thoughts this week with his 'we're 7-5 and it's time we started playing like it' speech. Whether you want to call it a lack of experience, a lack of discipline or a lack of maturity there is no doubt that the Lions biggest enemy this season has been themselves. The two recent defeats on national TV highlighted these deficiencies to the wider NFL world but it's not just been in this blog that they had been mentioned beforehand. Frustrating as it is if you accept that immaturity or a lack of experience have been contributory factors in the defeats it then becomes very difficult to apportion too much blame for those defeats on anyone, whether that be players or coaches. You cannot demand experience from someone who has none or little. As frustrating as the performances have been we may just have to accept that it is all part of the learning process for this essentially young team as they gain both experience and maturity.
Despite losing five of their last seven games the Lions are still very much in the hunt for a Wild Card spot into the playoffs in what is proving to be a competitive NFC. With the Saints heading towards the South title and the Cowboys and Giants seemingly cancelling each other out from anything other than a divisional title the Wild Card spots look to be between the Lions, Bears & Falcons. Winning their final four games, as they did last season, will see the Lions into the playoffs and in all likelihood so would winning 3 of the 4 but if they were to win only 2 it is unlikely they progress into January. Of those final four opponents the Vikings have the worst record at 2-10 and with the Lions having already beaten them on the road this game represents the easiest of the final four games to get a win.
For me the key to a successful offensive display will be how balanced Scott Linehan's play calling is. Matthew Stafford should be glove free again and all the better for it but he has been slow to get out of the blocks most weeks so I'd like to see the Lions try and establish a run game despite being up against a weak Viking secondary. If the Vikings continue the trend to overload on Calvin Johnson then Linehan's game planning needs to create openings for Stafford to find and exploit in other parts of the field. The Packers offensive success relies on Rogers ability to spread his passes around a group of receivers and, given the receivers available to him, there's no reason Stafford should not be able to do the same. It has to be hoped that Kevin Smith is fit enough to play but if he's not then more faith needs to be shown in Morris and Williams to get the job done. The Vikings front seven are sure to look to get to Stafford and the trenches battle is one that will need to be won by the Lions O-Line.
The D is missing some key starters through injury and suspension (yes that's you Ndamukong Suh) but there is not a team in the league that doesn't have injury concerns at the business end of the season. The defense, in particular, will need to show extreme self discipline as the Vikings are likely to continue the trend of trying to wind them up in order to get a penalty inducing reaction. Ponder is showing signs of development and the Lions weakened D-Line will need to keep him under pressure if he is not to take advantage of the banged up Lions secondary. Pressurising the rookie QB could lead to opportunities for interceptions and the lift one or two defensive scores would give the team would be most welcome.
I have such little faith in the Special teams now that I go into games just hoping they don't cost us the game. In fairness to Ben Graham I thought he punted reasonably well against the Saints and there was a couple of times where the coverage unit was able to tackle the returner before they gathered any momentum. I think Stefan Logan has become a luxury the team can't afford and would like to see the kick return duties handed to Titus Young or for us bring someone in that offers something on offense, whether that be as a RB or at WR.
There's no doubt that this is a must win game for the Lions and the fact that there will be absolutely no pressure on the Vikings could mean they are more dangerous than might be expected. Much as they did against the Broncos and Panthers go into a must win game against opponents they should beat. The stakes couldn't be higher as a win will propel the Lions closer toward a playoff spot while a defeat could leave them struggling to finish the season at .500. I'm expecting a strong response from the Lions to the recent defeats and subsequent criticisms so am anticipating the Lions win this game. I also think it is a game they'll dominate in the manner they did the Chiefs and Broncos games. This Lions team needs to show that it is gaining in experience by showing that they are learning from their mistakes. If they play with the same indiscipline that has peppered the games since the bye break then the Vikings are more than capable of taking advantage and effectively ending any hopes of the Lions playing in the post season.
Prediction: Vikings 10 LIONS 38
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