The Thanksgiving Game is the fixture all Lions look to when the season schedule is announced and for the second time in three seasons we host the Packers. It was a hobbled Matthew Stafford who probably shouldn't have started the last Thanksgiving encounter that ended in a hefty defeat and Lions fans will be hoping a healthy Stafford can repeat last years victory in this years national spotlight. There is a strong case to be made for this being the game of the season, so this would be the perfect occasion to show the watching NFL world just how far these Lions have come. That's a far cry from the days not so long ago when there were increasing calls for the Lions to lose the right to stage the traditional Thanksgiving Game because they were so uncompetitive. Thankfully the NFL realised that there is no tradition without the Lions on Thanksgiving Day no matter how good, bad or indifferent the Lions team of the day may be. The last time this fixture was this competitive was 1962 when the 10-0 Packers visited the 8-2 Lions and this years 7-3 Lions will be hoping that this years 10-0 Packers suffer the same consequences as their predecessors. The 1962 game finished in a 26-14 Lions victory.
This is a game that Matthew Stafford and the Lions offense will need to be on the money. The Packers are not 10-0 for nothing and the Lions won't be able to get away with playing well for just a half, a quarter or even three quarter's. Hopefully the second half performance against the Panthers has provided Linehan with the evidence of how to maximise the weapons he has. The return of Kevin Smith was most welcoming and his NFC Offensive Player of the Week performance made for one of the feel good stories of the season. Smith showed that it is possible to run the ball behind our average O-Line and the extra effort he brought to his game brought yards to the Lions offense where previously there were none. The gloved Stafford showed that his broken finger was not the problem against the Bears and was able to pass the ball accurately enough. The even distribution among his receiving corps showed that if he keeps his options open he can keep the offense moving. The Packers will be looking to repeat the success of their fellow NFC North rivals against the Lions with a dominating D-Line and aggressive secondary. The game is likely to be decided by who wins the battle of the trenches with the Lions O-Line needing to keep the Packers front seven off Stafford and with gaps for Smith to exploit. The Packers have been giving up yards and points to the opposition all season with the explanation that nothing was given up that mattered as the Packers were always in control of the game. The Lions have the offense to compete with the Packers if the game becomes a scoring frenzy and it may be that it is on the flip side of this contest that the key to the game will lie.
The Panthers game was one the Lions D seemed to struggle with early on and the D-Line probably missed Jackson and Young more than was anticipated. The second half saw them back to their best though and but for Cliff Avril's horse collar penalty may well have kept the Panthers scoreless. Much has been made of the Packers offense that has taken on almost mythical qualities this season if the media is to be believed. Yes they have been very good but this is likely to be their first true test and it is possible their season to date has not prepared them for it. The Lions will be hoping that the D-Line is not too banged up to be as effective as it needs to be and are able to collapse the pocket around Aaron Rogers. The linebacking corps will need to snuff out the Packers ground game and the secondary will need to tackle with greater success than it has of late. The D will need to keep its discipline more than ever in this game especially when it comes to tackling the current national darling, Aaron Rogers. The merest hint of a late or illegal hit in front of the nation on Thanksgiving Day will draw the ire of the officials and it would be a shame if it is a lack of discipline that costs us points and ultimately the game.
Special Teams have been our Achilles Heel all season long and even with 6 games, and possibly the post-season, still to go you have to think that we will have a new face coaching Special Teams next season. Poor coverage tackling has been a common feature and if that continues against the Packers then I think it will cost us the game. If that ends up being the case then Danny Crossman and many of his players will be lucky to survive the season.
We split the season series with the Packers last season so there is no reason for us to fear them even though they are undefeated so far this year. A look at their schedule to date shows they beat the three strongest teams they have faced before any of them hit form. Also despite winning every game they have only destroyed one team and that was the Vikings at Lambeau last Monday night. The Lions have been truly battle tested though and this game will probably mean more to the Lions players than the Packers such is the history of this fixture over recent seasons. I think the Lions D will do a better job of dominating the Packers O than the Packers D does with the Lions O. I think Kevin Smith puts in another performance that has everyone wondering just how in the hell he was out of football a few weeks ago and I think Calvin Johnson turns this into a classic Thanksgiving game with some Megatron magic. I think the basis of a Lions victory will be a dominating Lions D-Line putting Aaron Rogers under the type of pressure he has not really faced this year. My only concerns are that indiscipline on D prolongs Packers drives and turns stops into points and that Special teams coverage once again proves inadequate and once again gives up points. I shall put those concerns to one side though and say this Thanksgiving will begin with a Lions win.
Prediction: Packers 34 LIONS 44
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