Week Eight

LIONS @ Broncos

Considering the importance of this game (6-2 or 5-3 going into bye week) and the hype surrounding the Bronco's new starting QB, Tim Tebow, I'm a little concerned that I may be feeling too comfortable ahead of the game. Maybe I've not been sufficiently downhearted after successive home defeats or maybe I'm not paying enough respect to the former College national hero now starting to make his way in the pros but I just don't see this game as being the danger that many do.

It's looking like Stafford being our starting QB will be a game time decision and there has been sufficient contrasting information coming out of Allen Park all week to leave no one outside the Lions organisation with any real idea on how this will swing. If it is Stafford then he will be keen, no doubt, to bounce back from his last two performances that have been widely criticised. It's easy to forget Stafford is still learning his craft and I think much of the criticism he's received has been harsh. That said he will need to find a way of dealing with what is now likely to be a repeated pattern from opposing teams namely cheating on defending the run game to rush the pass. It's not just Stafford, of course, that needs to adjust to this it's the entire offense and coaching staff too. The Morris/Williams RB combo should continue to offer much of what Jahvid Best did/does if not a little more in every down play but that is still short of what is needed so it has to be hoped either or both of these backs can step it up another notch. Similarly the Lions secondary receivers Burleson/Young are noticeable by their absence from the stats of the Falcons game and they will need to offer a better target for Stafford if the Lions are to be more than Megatron. There is ability there and it needs to come to the fore or the Lions are too easy to shut down offensively. The O-Line is not as good as we'd like but it is good enough as it has proved in winning games.

Week Seven

Falcons @ LIONS

The beauty of a 16 game season is that each game is an event and, to varying degrees as the season goes on, each game matters. Having lost their first game of the season and thus bringing to an end a nine-game winning streak this game matters to the Lions, it matters big time. The 49ers defeat challenged these new Lions and their growing reputation, against the Falcons they have the opportunity to answer that challenge and show these Lions are different.

The 49ers did what all opposing teams do, focus on taking away Calvin Johnson, they just did it a little better than most. The key for me though to their defensive performance was shutting down the Lions run game and the pressure they brought to Matthew Stafford. The Cowboys and Vikings had similar success but had been unable to sustain it throughout the 60 minutes in the way the 49ers managed. The news this week on Jahvid Best and, perhaps more worryingly, Jerome Harrison looks to have put the attention firmly on Maurice Morris. The Lions offensive strengths are undoubtedly linked with passing the football but if they are unable to establish a run threat to at least keep the opposing defense honest the strength of the passing game is severely diminished. In Morris the Lions will probably have a more consistent gainer of 3 to 4 yards than they have in Best but Morris will not offer the potential breakaway ability that Best does. There is also an opportunity for Keiland Williams to make a name for himself in this game and it has to be hoped that the O-Line is determined to put in a better effort than they did against San Francisco when they were poor in both aspects of the offense.  Either Stafford will need to be quicker with his reads or the O-Line will need to afford him more time to go through his check downs if the passing attack is to flourish. Opposition attention to CJ should ensure more favourable matchups for Burleson, Pettigrew and Young. Stafford didn't look at his most comfortable last week and will surely be looking to get into a better groove against the Falcons.

Week Six

49ers @ LIONS

I was recently listening to SI's Peter King interviewing Coach Schwartz and, after going over the Coaches reputation for being a stats man, King asked if the Coach believed there to be an overrated or underrated stat that the wider world should be aware of. Schwartz deferred on answering directly and instead pointed out what he believed to be an erroneous focus within the world of NFL stats. Schwartz pointed out that there is an obsession in yardage when in reality it should be points that should be focussed on. He has a point (pardon the pun). After all, the team that gains 500 yds but scores 15 points loses to the team that gains 250 yards but scores 21 points. 

The reason I mention this is because going into this weeks game the Lions lie 4th in giving up the fewest average points per game at 17.8 and also lie 4th in scoring the highest average points per game with 31.8 (for the mathematically bored or challenged that's a 14 pt or two TD difference in the Lions favour). Scoring an average of two TD' more than your opponent goes a long way to explaining why we're 5-0. But in the words of ESPN's College Gameday's Lee Corso  "not so fast my friend" the 49ers are 4-1 and lie 2nd in giving up fewest points per game at 15.6 and 7th in highest scoring average with 28.4 points per game (for anyone still interested that's a 12.8 point difference in favour of the 49ers). To further illustrate Schwartz's point the Lions lie 12th & the 49ers 13th in yardage given up while the Lions are 10th and the 49ers a lowly 27th in yards gained. So, if you hadn't realised it already, this game should be close.

Week Five

Bears @ LIONS

When the 2011 schedule was released and fans and media looked at this iconic Week 5 matchup I doubt there were many, if any, that had the Lions at 4-0. I like to think I was one of the few but in reality I think that whilst I may have believed 4 wins were possible I didn't think they would all be achieved. We are the Lions after all and even with the optimism afforded us by a strong finish to 2010 and a strong draft it was still a step too far to think that we may have become one the leagues better teams. Even now that does not seem quite possible and even if it's not yet the case this game offers the opportunity to extend the record to a heady 5-0.

With the atmosphere inside Ford Field likely to be electric this game should have the feel of a playoff encounter. The Lions will be hoping to continue the form they showed in the second half of the Cowboys game rather than the form they began the game with. It was the second successive game that they had been slow out of the blocks and if this team is to prove itself to be a genuine contender this season they will need to demonstrate that slow starting is not a trait. Against a respected Bears defense, that will be itching to get to Stafford, it may be that it's better to come out passing. The Lions O-Line has been better protecting Stafford than it has in opening up running lanes for the running backs. An up tempo series of Stafford passes to his array of receiving talent could not only see the Lions marching up the field but also wear down the Bears pass rushers. If they establish the passing attack then the defense will be forced into being softer for the running game. Williams may well be the better option to carry the ground attack as Best has yet to convince me he has the game to be the teams premier runner. Stafford & Backus will be hoping there is no repeat of last years Peppers sack and they will not be alone in this wish as they will be joined by every Lions fan. The Monday Night stage has been set for Calvin Johnson to become the hottest name in the NFL and there is every chance he grabs at least 2 TD's for the 5th straight game.

Tony Romo appeared to do a good job of reading the Detroit D last week and his O-Line seemed to be doing a pretty good job of keeping their QB upright. But the Lions defense last week brought pressure that increased with each successive down in much the same way as the hour hand on a clock moves. As the game wore on Romo was forced to speed up the clock in his head as the Lions kept getting closer to slamming him to the ground. The more hurried he became the less composed his game and sure enough he began to provide opportunities for interceptions which were gratefully received. On the Cowboys final drive Romo was forced into holding on to the ball and Willie Young showed why Romo had previously been so keen to get rid of it by slamming him into the turf. The Bears O-Line is not as impressive as the Cowboys and it'll be interesting to see if former Lions Offensive Co-Ordinator Martz focusses on the run as much as he did in last weeks game against the Panthers. The Lions have been vulnerable to the run early in games and it will be important to their plans in getting to Cutler that they restrict the yards gained by Forte. If Martz returns to Ford Field and serves up anything like the kind of offense he used to run for his Kitna led Lions then this could be the week you wish you had the Lions D on your fantasy team. 

The Lions Special teams are starting to become a bit of a disappointment. For such a talented group they have struggled on both covering and returning which may have something to do with the limited number of kicks that get returned these days. They will need to be at their best against the Bears who have proved to be one of the most consistently spectacular Special Teams.

The Bears were the last team to beat the Lions, in this very fixture last season, but I don't think they will be the first to beat them this season. I think the Lions will respond to the atmosphere they will find themselves in and look to shine in the national spotlight. I'm looking for Stafford to continue to feed the growing reputation of the man known as Megatron with a continuation of the 2 TD per game streak. I also think Keiland Williams has a break out game and will continue to predict Titus Young takes it to the house. On the defensive side I think Suh will have his most stat noteworthy game of the season on an evening that see's Cutler bounced out of the game and am looking for a memorable cameo from Nick Fairley which will have the rest of the league even more fearful of what the Lions can become. The Lions to return to MNF with a bang then and ESPN wishing they'd scheduled them more.

Prediction: Bears 20 LIONS 38  

Week Four

LIONS @ Cowboys

If Vernon was to ask his celebrity families to provide him with the name of an American baseball team I'm guessing the surveys top answer by some distance would be the New York Yankees. If the question was asked of the NBA then the LA Lakers would be top and if there were a survey of random members of the UK population enquiring of them the name of an American Football team then it's highly likely the Dallas Cowboys would be the name given by the vast majority. Just as Manchester United transcend the interest of their local and national markets so these American teams have found their ways into the consciousness of people on this side of the pond who may even be unaware of the sport they play. Like it or not the Dallas Cowboys are a big name draw and the Lions head there this weekend looking to improve on their 3-0 start to the season.

It's been more than 30 years since the Lions started a season 3-0 and just as long since they started a season 4-0 but that doesn't really matter as we're all too busy enjoying the now to worry about all those years since the then. How long was the Lions road streak without a win? I can honestly say I have no idea now but I do know they will be going for their 5th consecutive road win Sunday. On the evidence of the season so far that win is a realistic expectation for a Lions team that has begun the process of changing peoples perceptions of them.

The Lions have yet to fully click in any of their initial three games this season. They finished poorly against the Bucs, started slowly against the Chiefs and last week spotted the Vikings a 20 point lead at the half. Likewise the Cowboys have struggled to find a consistent rhythm to their play so far this season and have been impressive only in flashes. Matthew Stafford returns to his home state and I'm sure he will be looking to impress not just us fans and the rest of the NFL but the multitude of personal guests he will no doubt have had to secure tickets for. The partnership with Calvin Johnson is at the forefront of the media attention as the spotlight begins to shine on the Lions ever brighter. It is though the relationship with his other receivers that Stafford will become increasingly reliant on as the season progresses. The offensive line though will need to put in a vastly improved display against the Cowboys after being put to the sword last week by Jared Allen and the Vikings. DeMarcus Ware was passed up by Matt Millen in favour of Mike Williams in the 2005 Draft. The Cowboys were the beneficiaries of this particular piece of Millen management and the play of Ware so far this season has people speculating on his prospects of breaking the single season sack record. Lions tackles Backus & Cherilus will be under pressure to ensure that Matthew Stafford is not thrown around the confines of Cowboys Stadium by this one man QB wrecking crew. If they succeed then look for Stafford to light up a secondary that has already been giving up big yards this season. 

Just as the Cowboys defense will be looking to get to Matthew Stafford so their offense will be looking to do a better of protecting their own star QB, Tony Romo. It is probably fair to say that the Cowboys offense has been effective rather than dazzling so far this season in doing enough to secure a couple of wins without convincing that those wins were likely outcomes. The Cowboys have matched the Lions in their struggles to get an effective run game going this season and will be looking to finally get this aspect of their offense going this week. The Lions D, meanwhile, has been reasonably effective at shutting down opposing run games during games with the majority of yards conceded being in the early part of the games. Romo, though, lacks the weapons that Stafford has at his disposal and on the evidence of their most recent outing against the Redskins Romo's relationship with his receiving corps is still very much a work in progress. Being without leading tackler LB Justin Durant for this game should not affect the ability of the Lions in getting to Romo and the Lions secondary could once again benefit from a number of hurried throws.

Special Teams will be looking to bounce back from the performance at the Metrodome although having Jason Hanson named the NFL's Special Teams player of September will have been a boost to this unit. If this game is dominated by the Defenses then field position and the kicking game will be the determining factor in who wins and the Cowboys will not lack for confidence in coming out on top in such a game. 

This game promises to be a classic and the Cowboys are likely to present the most serious challenge yet to the Lions this season. A defeat to the Cowboys would not be a disgrace or enough to have everyone reassessing where they see the Lions finishing the season in fact it may well relieve the increasing pressure of an undefeated record. A victory though would be a fantastic way to head into a three game road stretch that begins with another high profile matchup, the Monday Night game against the Bears. I'm looking for the Lions to show the same bring it on attitude they took into that pre-season game against the Patriots and rise to the challenge of winning in Dallas. They won't be able to afford to only play for one half like they did against the Vikings but I think they will be eager to impress the wider audience that The Cowboys will provide. The game is being shown on Sky here in the UK so offers the opportunity to sit in front of the TV rather than the PC to watch a Lions game. My only dilemma in looking forward to this is whether I will spend the game thinking I should be eating turkey!

Prediction: LIONS 28 Cowboys 23