Week 14 Preview

Packers @ LIONS

It would not be an unreasonable assumption, given the Lions lost to the Packers by just two points in Green Bay earlier this season, to expect the Lions to turn the tables at home and come away with a victory. But the reality is if the result and Lions performance were surprises at Lambeau it would be quite a shock if this beat up Lions team were to halt their consecutive divisional loss record at 19 and beat the playoff challenging Packers.

Drew Stanton had a fairly good game against the Bears and probably performed better than most, including me, were expecting. But he is the third choice QB for a reason so even when he plays well there is a notable drop off from the two guys ahead of him. We've all been playing a bit of "what if Matthew Stafford" lately when looking at close defeats that might have been victories if our franchise QB had been on the field such has been the general quality of the team. Last weeks Bears loss added "what if Shaun Hill" to the post game analysis so I think with Stafford playing we would have won and with Hill playing we probably would have won. The last two defeats have seen an improvement in the running attack but regrettably still not enough of an improvement for it to change opposition game plans. Our receiving corps are fast catching the D-Line as the best positional group on the team and it would be difficult to argue that they haven't already surpassed the D-Line. The Packers D is a turnover sacking machine so a big game will be needed by our O-Line and Stanton will need to be quick to make the correct decision of whether to stay in the pocket or scramble if he is to avoid being slam dunked to the turf and finding himself joining his QB pals on the sideline with an injury.

With Vanden Bosch lost for the season due to injury and Julian Peterson being largely ineffectual all season there is little veteran presence on the Lions D. The Packers O Line is not the best and the D Line will have to have a great day if the Lions are to prevent Aaron Rogers picking apart our Secondary. The loss of Alphonso Smith for the year provides the opportunity for someone else to step up and claim an interception or two. Suh and Avril may be getting the sacks but it is Williams who probably deserves the most credit for the units success and he will be looking to have a big day against his former team. The D Line has the potential to become legend over the next few years as, with the exception of Vanden Bosch, they are all young and improving and games like this are part of the process of becoming great. It'd be nice if they bash the heck out of Rogers, as they did a with Cutler, because these are the QB's they will be facing for most of their careers and they will not look forward to playing us if they know they're in for a battering.  

Special teams, having already lost Follett, have now lost Ekejiuba to injury and the coverage unit is severely weakened as a result. Logan continues to impress with a consistently decent return game and if it does come down a field goal then there should be no reason to worry about Rayner attempting the kick.

Whilst writing this I almost started to think we had a realistic shot at winning the game, and perhaps we do, but I just can't see it. The two teams are very close statistically and so a close game should be expected but the Lions have yet to find the ability to win these close games and I doubt they'll discover the ability against the Packers who are very much in the hunt for a playoff place. This looks like it will follow the pattern of the season and remain close until the second half when I expect the Pack to pull away.

Prediction:  Packers 28 LIONS 20

Week 13 Preview

Bears @ LIONS

The fine line between success and failure is perfectly exemplified by the differing fortunes of these two teams this season. The Bears got off to a winning start thanks to an official deciding that Calvin Johnson had not completed the process of catching a ball in the End Zone and thus denying the Lions what would likely have been a game winning touchdown. The Bears have managed to accumulate a further 7 wins many of which have been achieved in a similarly unconvincing way as their opening victory. The Lions, on the other hand, have managed to lose a further 8 games, most of which have been in a similarly gut wrenching way as that opening loss to the Bears. So, given the closeness of their original meeting, we should be looking to this fixture with a great deal of optimism shouldn't we? 

The Lions offense looked to have got itself back on track against the Patriots right up until the point Shaun Hill's pass was intercepted in the 2nd half, they'd even finally managed to get a plausible run game going with Maurice Morris cutting through the Patriots time and again. But the interception changed the course of the game and the Lions fell away dramatically in the 4th quarter. A broken finger has denied Hill the chance of redemption and has presented the honour of being the Lions starting QB to Drew Stanton whose most recent contribution was to throw an awful pass that fell incomplete rather than take a sack to keep the clock running late in the game against the Jets. This is Stanton's big chance to make a career for himself in the NFL as neither Hill or Stafford are expected back this season. The Bears defense has improved steadily through the season and former Lions coach Rod Marinelli will be relishing the opportunity to close down the Lions potent offense at Ford Field. If Jeff Backus can remember to block Julius Peppers and the rest of the Lions O Line can provide Stanton with time or Morris with gaps then the Lions could surprise. If the O Line fail to adequately protect Stanton then not only could the scoreboard start to look very ugly but the Lions may well find themselves with Zac Robinson under center.

The D-Line started to show the strain of carrying the D on its shoulders in the 2nd half of the Patriots game and their effectiveness has reduced as minor injuries have taken their toll. It looks like the Lions will be without Vanden Bosch against the Bears this Sunday and his influence could be highlighted by his absence jsut as Avril's was recently. Alphonso Smith will be looking to bounce back from his nightmare game on Thanksgiving Day when Tom Brady and the Patriots decided the Lions CB was the weakest link. Cutler and Martz will be looking to exploit any weaknesses in the Detroit secondary and Smith will need to have a much better outing than his Thanksgiving one. It could be that this is the game that last years rookie studs Levy and Delmas step up and make a game changing play or two as to date each has struggled to have the same impact they managed last year. The Bears have a weak O Line and a QB that is prone to throwing interceptions and if the Lions are to win this game they will need the D Line to rumble through that O Line to sack Cutler or hurry him into throwing incomplete or interceptions.

Logan is one of the leagues better returners and Rayner has proved to be an adequate replacement for Hanson who has now been placed on IR. It's the coverage unit that causes the most concern on Special Teams though and they will need to improve their game against the Bears who are a very dangerous kick return team.

I'd had this game pegged as a Lions win almost since the fixtures were announced and that belief remained until this week. Now though, with the Lions missing a key component of their biggest strength on defense and Drew Stanton as their QB I think victory may be out of our reach. I'm hoping I'm wrong and Stanton is able to lead the team to the victory they should be capable of achieving but unfortunately I can't shake from my mind the end of that Jets game.

Prediction: Bears 31 LIONS 17