Week 12 Preview

Patriots @ LIONS

One of the unexpected benefits of being a Lions fan from outside of the US has been the Thanksgiving Game, especially since it started being televised live, as it has meant I've got to join in the celebrations too. Friends, relatives (especially the wife!) and work colleagues (although I think there's a touch of envy here) all think I am more than a little mad as I take time off to have my own Thanksgiving complete with turkey dinner and all the trimmings. The look on their faces suggests that they think I'm more than a little odd that this celebration is inspired by my love of a team that by and large they have never heard of while the "Really?" I receive when explaining the Lions awful record just about confirms my madness to them. Given the terrible record the Lions have in these games, especially in recent seasons, I'm amazed that I manage to convince myself before the start of each one that we'll win!!!!

The promise of better times ran through us all just a few weeks ago and it was possible then to look ahead to this game with genuine hope. That feeling endured until the last 10 minutes of the Jets game and subsequent road defeats to the Bills & Cowboys have not seen it return. The Lions desperately need a victory to reaffirm that belief in both the fans and, I suspect, the players too. The Patriots may therefore be the perfect opponent for the Lions to be facing as they will not be expected to beat them. There was perhaps a pressure of expectation that this team just wasn't ready for that will be lifted for this game and it may allow the team to play with a little more freedom. A strong showing against the Patriots, even in defeat, may well give us all the boost we need to grab a few victories before the season comes to a close.

The Patriots have the 31st ranked passing defense in the league so hopefully the Lions make a better job of taking advantage of this weakness than they did when trying to run the ball against the Bills league worst rush defense. The competent efficiency of Shaun Hill may not take advantage of the Pats secondary in the same way a fully fit Matthew Stafford would, but it should be enough to keep the Lions in the game. With Jahvid Best clearly suffering from his turf toe injury Maurice Morris will be responsible for the bulk of the Lions ground game. Hopefully Linehan will have taken a leaf out of his opponents book and worked out a gameplan that makes the most of the strength of his offense, namely his receiving corps. Belichick will look to nullify CJ as does every other opponent but we need to make sure they pay for doing so with Burleson and Pettigrew having big games again.

The effects of a tough season are showing in the reduced effectiveness of the D-Line in the last couple of games or so. This game see's the return of Cliff Avril and it is to be hoped his impact confirms the impression that his absence had much to do with that reduced effectiveness. Putting pressure on Brady will be essential if we are to keep this game competitive. The Lions secondary could well find themselves the surprising stars of the show though if they are able to snare an interception or two as they are more than capable of running back for a TD. 

Special Teams will be looking to have a better game than they managed in Dallas and it is to be hoped that the game is not lost on a Special Teams play. 

With the game still a few hours away I have not yet convinced myself of a Lions victory, although the score is getting closer by the hour. It'd be great if the Lions meet the same Patriots that visited the Browns a few weeks ago but I think we would need to be more than a little fortunate for that particular lightening bolt to strike twice. I think we should prepare for another agonising loss but take heart from an improved showing that reaffirms our improvement this season and restores belief we will win a few more before the season is over. Now what did I do with that turkey baster?

Prediction: Patriots 34 LIONS 28  

Week 11 Preview

LIONS @ Cowboys

Despite the ultimate closeness of the defeat, last weeks loss to the Bills was a real confidence shaker for the majority of Lions fans. Going into this game, against what will most likely be an upbeat Cowboys team, it is important that the Lions players don't replicate the fans mood and instead recapture the belief they were demonstrating earlier in the season. Both teams are 2-7 and, when analysing their stats, are very evenly matched so we could well be in for another close game.

It is to be hoped with a full week of practice and a further week of healing that Shaun Hill resembles the QB that took the field against the Rams as the Lions running game has failed to take off this season. A strong argument could be made for saying the loss to the Bills came down to Linehan and Schwartz sticking with an impotent ground game for too long and that a move to a more pass focussed attack earlier could well have provided the road victory we all craved. Kevin Smith has now been placed on IR and so Maurice Morris, Jerome Felton and Jahvid Best will likely share the load running the ball. The strength of the Lions passing attack and the weakness of the Cowboys pass defense though suggests that there should be matchups for Hill to exploit all game long. If Hill and the receivers click then it is entirely possible that Best ends up with his best running performance as the Cowboys will be loading up to stop the pass and late in the game this could lead to Best breaking a couple of big ones.

The loss of Cliff Avril proved to be more significant than most of us could have expected before the Bills game but when you look back while Suh and Vanden Bosch were gaining the plaudits it has been Avril and Williams that have perhaps had the greater effect. Avril will miss the Cowboys game according to his tweets but will return for the Patriots on Thanksgiving. The Cowboys ground game has been as non-existent as the Lions one has so the D-Line will be looking to collapse the pocket around former Lions QB Jon Kitna. The Cowboys have a formidable group of receivers though and the Lions will need to keep the pressure on Kitna to stop him from making full use of the weapons available to him. If the Lions defense can get on top then look for Kitna to be taking sacks and throwing interceptions. If the Lions aren't getting to Kitna then look for the Cowboys to light up the scoreboard.

With Jason Hanson still out injured the Lions kicking game will not be as strong and impact plays from Special teams will have Stefan Logan in them. Field position could be vital in this game as it has the potential of being a points fest with each defense needing as long a field to defend as possible.

I'm not ready to dispel the good things I've seen from the Lions so far this season or the progress they've made so am going to go against every sensible thought I'm having about this game. Maybe I'm still giddy from Spurs finally gaining an away win against Arsenal but I think after being criticised for losing games and not making the decisions to put the Lions in a position to win that Schwartz is the star of this show. 

Prediction: LIONS 44 Cowboys 35

Week 10 Preview

LIONS @ Bills

Sky may well end up regretting not showing this seemingly meaningless matchup as the first game of their Sunday night double-header. The Bills will be looking at the Lions as an opponent that perhaps represents their best opportunity to get their first win of the season while the Lions will be looking at the Bills as the perfect opponent to finally end their road losing streak against. Despite the number of losses both teams have piled up this season they have both been competitive in many, if not most, of those games. It would be a mistake to underestimate either team and despite seeing each other as very beatable I would guess that both are equally aware of the threat they pose.

The Lions will have Shaun Hill back at QB and, after seeing how poorly Drew Stanton performed against the Jets when coming in late for Matthew Stafford, I would imagine this a relief for most Lions fans. Hill proved in the first half of the season to be capable, if not spectacular, and that should be enough against the Bills. The poor Bills run defense represents an opportunity for the Lions ground game to finally get going and we may see a fair bit of the Smith/Best combo both early and late in the game (assuming the Lions have a lead to defend going into the 4th quarter). The Bills have also been giving up a lot of passing yards so the Detroit receiving corps will no doubt be licking their chops at the prospect of a big day. The cold and rain may prove to be more of a hazard for the Lions than the Bills defense.

The Bills offense can point to a reasonable run game and a not too shabby passing game to offer up some food for thought for Schwartz and the Lions D. After being reasonably well contained by the Jets though the Lions D-Line will be looking to feast upon a fairly weak Bills O-Line. I think it is safe to assume that Vanden Bosch will have his guys fired up for this and there is a strong possibility that it is the Lions defense that once again proves to be the catalyst for victory. With DeAndre Levy now back and healthy the run should be better defended so look for Alphonso Smith to add to his growing collection of interceptions.

It could be argued that it was Special Teams that cost us the victory against the Jets as the missed Extra Point saw the game go to overtime. It would be a harsh reflection though and if there is blame for Suh's missed kick then it should lay with Schwartz for initially not calling timeout to then allow either Suh to get some practice in or a two-point try to be talked through. Hopefully lessons will have been learned and Hanson's injury is not too serious.

I'm hoping that I have not underestimated just how well the Bills have been performing recently or how much of an advantage home field is but I'm predicting the Lions bounce back from the heart breaking loss to the Jets and snap their road losing streak while the Bills continue with their search for that first elusive victory of the season.

Prediction: LIONS 35 Bills 24

OTL - WTF?

Jets 23 LIONS 20

Oh come on don't tell me you didn't expect this. Snatching defeat from certain victory is a Lions speciality. Yet somehow, and I'm sure I'm not alone in this, I was sitting with time running out in the 4th quarter wondering if I should change my name to Nostradamus. OK so it wasn't going exactly how I'd expected in my preview but it was pretty close. Then, like one of those awful slow motion moments when you knock some precious ornament over and try, but fail, to catch it before it shatters on the ground, the Lions self-destructed. 

The play call media and fans have jumped on is the 3rd & 6 play coming out of the two minute warning where Schwartz called pass and Stanton threw incomplete, thus stopping the clock when the Jets had no time outs remaining. I'm not going to jump on this bandwagon because I was calling for him to be brave and throw the ball. My choice would have been to throw to a receiver rather than Felton as in these likely run situations I am always reminded of the Gelbaugh to Horton pass from underneath their own posts against the NY/NJ Knights that effectively sent the Monarchs to the World Bowl. Just as running the ball was predictable so was the choice of pass, so the Jets had it covered, if you're going to try the riskier option at least go for the unpredictable. Having chosen to pass though Stanton needed to have enough game management skills to know that taking a knee was preferable to throwing an incomplete pass in that situation. Stanton is our third string QB and so it is difficult to be too hard on him and we can only hope that if Stafford hadn't got himself injured again that he would have shown greater composure in the same situation. 

Julian Peterson getting a stupid 15-yard penalty for an out of bounds hit on the ensuing Jets drive was unforgivable though. He is supposed to be one of the experienced players and veterans should not be making such mistakes. 

The call I did find strange, and it doesn't seem to have gained much attention, is the choice of rookie sensation Ndamukong Suh to kick the extra point when Hanson went off injured. It's all very well saying he does it all the time in training but in training he hasn't been battling an opposing O-Line like the Jets have. I couldn't understand why they didn't go for a two point conversion if they regarded Suh as their best option to tack on one. The Lions leading by 12 late in the 4th quarter is still no guarantee they wouldn't have found a way to lose but it would have meant the Jets couldn't have got to OT.

Rather than focus on the woe of reality let us instead focus on the wow of what might have been and what might yet be. We have had a genuine chance to win every one of the six games we have lost so far this season, if Stafford had been fit there is every chance we would be 5-3(Bears, Packers & Jets) rather than 2-6, our next two road games are against opponents whose combined win total is less than ours (Bills 0-8, Cowboys 1-7, Lions 2-6) and that can't have been the case for a very long time.

Given our performances so far this season there should not be any games we go into in the remainder of this season where we shouldn't feel we have a chance to win. The fly in this particular ointment is the health of Matthew Stafford as this team is not the same without him. I'm hopeful the injured recover quickly, that the pain of this defeat hardens the resolve and the team starts to fulfil the potential it is showing, so I have no hesitation in saying...

Bring on the Bills.

Week 9 Preview

Jets @ LIONS

This was the game I was hoping would be featured at Wembley this year when we were predicting, this time last year, the likely 2010 matchup(s). It features the top two drafted QB's from the 2009 Draft in our own Matthew Stafford and the Jets Mark Sanchez. Going in to the game it is Sanchez who has received the greater publicity due to the success of the Jets in reaching last years AFC Championship game and the start they have made this season. Stafford, on the other hand, has spent much of his first two years on the sidelines injured while the Lions struggled to a 2-14 record last season and managed to win just one game while he was out injured this season. It'd be great if today's game came down to the performance of the QB's because on a level playing field I suspect Stafford wins hands down. The trouble for Stafford and the Lions is that Sanchez is perhaps one of the weakest links in a very strong Jets side that epitomises it's head coach.

With Stafford back behind center last week against the Redskins we finally got to see the Calvin Johnson we've all been hoping to see. The chemistry between the two is scary good and will continue to develop, which is even scarier for the opposition. Despite their fearsome reputation I have a feeling that the Jets secondary will not be looking forward to facing up to the Lions receiving corps. The lack of a credible ground game still frustrates Lions coaching staff and fans alike but may not be so noticeable as this weeks opponents manage to shut down most teams rushing attacks. The array of receiving options for Stafford could well see the passing game opening up the run game as there is every chance that the Jets risk overloading to stop the pass in the belief they will still stop the run. It may take a while to get going but I do think the Lions will be putting up points on the Jets.

It was the defense though that was the real star of the win against the Redskins and the D-Line in particular. Suh, Avril and Vanden Bosch each picked up a pair of sacks while the fourth member of the group Williams picked up a pair of blockers as he found himself double teamed. Much like on the offensive side of the ball where defensive co-ordinators are left to ponder which poison they'll find most palatable so now opposing offensive co-ordinators and their QB's must decide how to target their resources to prevent the Lions D-Line breaking through. With CB Alphonso Smith proving to be the steal of the season (as well as proving the old adage about round holes and square pegs) interception prone Sanchez better make sure he's not just tossing them up in the hope they'll find their target because Smith is more than capable of both picking and returning for TD's less than perfect passes. The Jets offense strength though lies on the ground and the Lions will need to limit the gains made by the Jets rushers LT and Greene. We may well see what Bobby Carpenter is capable of in this game and we can only hope he has a Smith like impact.

Special Teams will need to get back on track this week after the relatively poor show against the Redskins and find a way of making up for the loss to injury of both Follett and Ekejiuba. Logan has brought some consistency to the return game and Hanson still provides belief when facing Field Goals up to 50 yards at Ford Field.

This should be a win for the Jets and represents, perhaps the first real benchmark test of how far the Lions have come, given the inconsistency of the NFC this year. Maybe I'm still suffering from the virus that I picked up Wembley weekend or maybe I shouldn't mix beer and medicine but I'm going to go for a Lions win. I think the belief of the team at home, along with the support, is starting to become a real advantage and I also think that with each passing game the team is getting noticeably better. The Jets are likely to be in the Super Bowl  mix at the end of the season but this week it'll be the Lions looking like the better long term prospect for success.

Prediction: Jets 20 LIONS 24